Girona 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Girona welcome Valencia to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valencia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valencia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Girona, 1 for Valencia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 79% and Valencia 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Valencia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.44 xG and Valencia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.029 / defence 1.256 | Valencia attack 0.865 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.988. Data: 19 Girona games / 57 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 45% | Draw 26% | Valencia 28%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Valencia 3.57. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 80% | Valencia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 45% | Draw 26% | Valencia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Girona 1.44 / Valencia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.029 / def 1.256 | Valencia attack 0.865 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Girona (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Valencia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Valencia kick off?
Girona vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valencia?
Girona 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Girona vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valencia part of?
Girona vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 45% chance of winning, Valencia a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Girona and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Girona and Valencia in?
Girona (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.79
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Girona xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Valencia xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Girona and 1.07 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 9L across 19 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.11 PPG, Valencia on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valencia's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Valencia in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Valencia have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Valencia away?
Girona's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.33 PPG; Valencia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Valencia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Valencia?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Girona at 78%, Valencia at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Girona) and 44% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Girona's games and 67% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Girona's recent games and 44% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Valencia tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Valencia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.44 xG and Valencia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 45% | Draw 26% | Valencia 28%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Valencia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.11 PPG, Valencia 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.