Girona 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Girona (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osasuna are 0.80 PPG clear of Girona in recent La Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 80% and Osasuna 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Osasuna 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.13 xG and Osasuna 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.968 / defence 1.459 | Osasuna attack 0.788 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.165. Data: 10 Girona games / 48 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 31% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 42%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Osasuna 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Girona 80% | Osasuna 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 31% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Girona 1.13 / Osasuna 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.968 / def 1.459 | Osasuna attack 0.788 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Osasuna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Osasuna kick off?
Girona vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Girona 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Girona vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Osasuna part of?
Girona vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 31% chance of winning, Osasuna a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Girona and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Osasuna in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Girona's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.79x) against Girona's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.70
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Girona xG
Total xG
2.47
1.34
Osasuna xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Girona and 1.34 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 4L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Girona heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Girona have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Osasuna away?
Girona's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Girona or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Osasuna?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 75%, Osasuna 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Girona and 0% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Girona's recent matches and 25% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Girona's recent games and 0% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Osasuna tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 11, as Girona and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.13 xG and Osasuna 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.97 / defence 1.46 against Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 0.81, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 31% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 42%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Osasuna 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.