Girona 3-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Getafe at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Getafe travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Getafe — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Getafe have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Getafe are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.07 xG and Getafe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Getafe attack 0.929 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.208. Data: 1 Girona games / 39 Getafe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Girona 29% | Draw 31% | Getafe 40%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Getafe 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 29% | Draw 31% | Getafe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Girona 1.07 / Getafe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Getafe attack 0.929 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Getafe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Getafe xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Getafe kick off?
Girona vs Getafe kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Getafe?
Girona 3 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Girona vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Getafe part of?
Girona vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 29% chance of winning, Getafe a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Girona and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Getafe in?
Girona (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Getafe's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
29%
3.39
31%
3.27
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Girona xG
Total xG
2.37
1.29
Getafe xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Girona and 1.29 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 0.00 PPG, Getafe on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Getafe in 0%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Getafe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Getafe in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Getafe have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Girona
1
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Getafe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Girona 1-1 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Girona's recent matches and 0% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Girona's recent games and 100% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Getafe tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Getafe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Getafe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Getafe 3-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.07 xG and Getafe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Getafe attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Girona 29% | Draw 31% | Getafe 40%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 0%, Getafe 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 0.00 PPG, Getafe 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Getafe scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.