Girona 0-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Celta Vigo at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.50 PPG versus Celta Vigo's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.39 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.116 / defence 1.111 | Celta Vigo attack 0.909 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.202. Data: 2 Girona games / 40 Celta Vigo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Girona 40% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 31%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 40% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Girona 1.39 / Celta Vigo 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.116 / def 1.111 | Celta Vigo attack 0.909 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Girona (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Girona vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Girona 0 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Girona vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Celta Vigo part of?
Girona vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 40% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Girona and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Celta Vigo in?
Girona (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.12) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.44
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Girona xG
Total xG
2.61
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Girona and 1.21 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 100%.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
4
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Girona 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Girona's games and 100% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Girona's matches and 100% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Girona and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.39 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Celta Vigo attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Girona 40% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 31%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 50%, Celta Vigo 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.