Getafe 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Getafe at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Getafe welcome Villarreal to Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Getafe have posted 7W 3D 0L at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Getafe are significantly better at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Getafe's 30% rate and Villarreal's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Getafe, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Villarreal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Getafe trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Villarreal trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 36% versus Villarreal 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 32% | Villarreal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.12 xG and Villarreal 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.923 / defence 0.971 | Villarreal attack 0.759 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.052. Data: 31 Getafe games / 31 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 43% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 25%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Villarreal 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Villarreal (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 30% | Villarreal 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 43% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Getafe 1.12 / Villarreal 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.923 / def 0.971 | Villarreal attack 0.759 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Getafe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Villarreal xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Villarreal kick off?
Getafe vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Villarreal?
Getafe 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Getafe vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Villarreal part of?
Getafe vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 43% chance of winning, Villarreal a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Getafe and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Getafe and Villarreal in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Getafe's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.13
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Villarreal xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Getafe and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Getafe and 0.78 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Getafe's recent record stands at 7W 11D 13L from 31 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 9L across 31 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Villarreal's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Getafe are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.58 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 12W 10D 9L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Villarreal away?
Getafe's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.67 PPG; Villarreal away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Getafe or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Villarreal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Getafe's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Getafe
4
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 1, Villarreal have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Getafe 2-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Getafe see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Getafe 33% BTTS, Villarreal 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Getafe) and 27% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Villarreal in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Getafe's recent matches and 33% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Getafe's recent games and 27% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Getafe 1-2 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.12 xG and Villarreal 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Villarreal attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 43% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 25%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 32%, Villarreal 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Villarreal's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.