Getafe 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Getafe take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Coliseum Alfonso Pérez plays host to Getafe versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 23 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 La Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Sevilla are the stronger side — 3.00 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Getafe have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Sevilla in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 0.89 xG and Sevilla 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Sevilla attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.791 / away 0.898. Data: 1 Getafe games / 1 Sevilla games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Getafe 30% | Draw 41% | Sevilla 29%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 3.33 | Draw 2.44 | Sevilla 3.45. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 30% | Draw 41% | Sevilla 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Getafe 0.89 / Sevilla 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Sevilla attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.791 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sevilla xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Sevilla kick off?
Getafe vs Sevilla kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Getafe 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Getafe vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Sevilla part of?
Getafe vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 30% chance of winning, Sevilla a 29% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Getafe and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in?
Getafe (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Sevilla (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Getafe's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.85x) against Getafe's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
41%
2.42
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.76
0.88
Sevilla xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.42
41%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.1 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Getafe and 0.88 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Getafe have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sevilla's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Getafe.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Sevilla's attacking output running into Getafe's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sevilla in 0%.
Defensively: Sevilla in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Getafe or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sevilla in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Getafe
1
Draws
6
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 3, Sevilla have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Getafe 0-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Getafe's recent matches and 0% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Getafe's recent games and 100% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Sevilla tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Getafe 0-1 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.89 xG and Sevilla 0.88 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Sevilla attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 30% | Draw 41% | Sevilla 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 0%, Sevilla 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sevilla managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.