Getafe 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Osasuna at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's home record at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez: 2W 2D 4L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 2D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.75 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Getafe) versus 1.10 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 35% versus Osasuna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 35% | Osasuna 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 0.98 xG and Osasuna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.901 / defence 1.127 | Osasuna attack 0.791 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.134. Data: 17 Getafe games / 17 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 33% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Osasuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 38% | Osasuna 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 33% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Getafe 0.98 / Osasuna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.901 / def 1.127 | Osasuna attack 0.791 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Osasuna xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Osasuna kick off?
Getafe vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Getafe 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Getafe vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Osasuna part of?
Getafe vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 33% chance of winning, Osasuna a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Getafe and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.90) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.04
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.99
1.01
Osasuna xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Getafe and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Getafe and 1.01 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Getafe have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 2W 6D 9L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 5W 7D 5L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osasuna are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Getafe.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Getafe or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Osasuna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Getafe
2
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 6, Osasuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Osasuna?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 38%, Osasuna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Getafe) and 38% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 38%; Getafe have failed to score in 50% of games; Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Getafe's recent matches and 38% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 38% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Osasuna tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 1-0 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.98 xG and Osasuna 1.01 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Osasuna attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 33% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Getafe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 35%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.