Getafe 1-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Almeria travel to Coliseum Alfonso Pérez to take on Getafe. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Getafe have posted 4W 4D 2L at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
Almeria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Almeria's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Getafe have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Getafe, 1 for Almeria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Almeria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Getafe in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 47% versus Almeria 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 40% | Almeria 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.81 xG and Almeria 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.922 / defence 0.862 | Almeria attack 0.986 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.031. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Getafe games / 30 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 59% | Draw 23% | Almeria 18%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Almeria 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Getafe (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Getafe 40% | Almeria 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 59% | Draw 23% | Almeria 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Getafe 1.81 / Almeria 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.922 / def 0.862 | Almeria attack 0.986 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Getafe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Almeria xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Almeria kick off?
Getafe vs Almeria kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Almeria?
Getafe 1 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Getafe vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Almeria part of?
Getafe vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 59% chance of winning, Almeria a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Getafe and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Getafe and Almeria in?
Getafe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Getafe's attack at 0.92x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.39
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.68
0.88
Almeria xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
34.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Getafe and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Getafe and 0.88 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Getafe's recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 16L across 30 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 1.03 PPG, Almeria on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almeria's away record stands at 0W 4D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.20 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 67%.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Almeria in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Almeria have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Almeria away?
Getafe's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.43 PPG; Almeria away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Getafe or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Almeria in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Almeria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Getafe's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Getafe
0
Draws
2
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Almeria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Almeria 1-3 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 43%, Almeria 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Getafe) and 57% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 36% of games; Almeria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Getafe's recent matches and 64% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Getafe's recent games and 57% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Almeria tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Almeria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Getafe 1-2 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.81 xG and Almeria 0.88 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Getafe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Almeria outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Almeria attack 0.99 / defence 1.46, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 59% | Draw 23% | Almeria 18%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Almeria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 40%, Almeria 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.03 PPG, Almeria 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.