Espanyol 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Espanyol welcome Villarreal to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol at RCDE Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.10 PPG versus Villarreal's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Espanyol have won 0, Villarreal 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–5 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Espanyol trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Villarreal trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 59% versus Villarreal 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 47% | Villarreal 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.04 xG and Villarreal 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.945 / defence 1.271 | Villarreal attack 0.769 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.139. Villarreal's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Espanyol games / 51 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 33% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 37%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Villarreal 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 60% | Villarreal 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 33% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Espanyol 1.04 / Villarreal 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.945 / def 1.271 | Villarreal attack 0.769 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Villarreal xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Villarreal kick off?
Espanyol vs Villarreal kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Espanyol 0 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Espanyol vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Villarreal part of?
Espanyol vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 33% chance of winning, Villarreal a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Espanyol and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Villarreal?
Record (2 meetings): Espanyol 0W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Espanyol and Villarreal in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.39
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
Villarreal xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.11 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 12W 18D 21L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 21W 14D 16L from 51 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Espanyol.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Espanyol are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.51 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 12W 18D 21L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 21W 14D 16L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Villarreal away?
Espanyol's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.52 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Villarreal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Espanyol and Villarreal runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Espanyol's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Espanyol
1
Draws
7
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 0, Villarreal have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Villarreal 4-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 56%, Villarreal 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Espanyol) and 32% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Villarreal in 32%; Villarreal in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Espanyol's recent matches and 28% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Espanyol's recent games and 32% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Villarreal tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Espanyol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Espanyol 0-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.04 xG and Villarreal 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Villarreal attack 0.77 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 33% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 37%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 47%, Villarreal 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.