Espanyol 1-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Espanyol and Valencia meet at RCDE Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Espanyol's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at RCDE Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valencia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Espanyol against 1.10 for Valencia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Espanyol lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Espanyol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 56% versus Valencia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 47% | Valencia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.10 xG and Valencia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.900 / defence 1.096 | Valencia attack 0.732 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.131. Data: 36 Espanyol games / 36 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 39% | Draw 33% | Valencia 29%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Valencia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 60% | Valencia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 39% | Draw 33% | Valencia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Espanyol 1.10 / Valencia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.900 / def 1.096 | Valencia attack 0.732 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Valencia xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Valencia kick off?
Espanyol vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Valencia?
Espanyol 1 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Espanyol vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Valencia part of?
Espanyol vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 39% chance of winning, Valencia a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Espanyol and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Espanyol 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Espanyol and Valencia in?
Espanyol (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Espanyol's attack rating (0.90) and Valencia's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.73x) against Espanyol's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.05
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.00
0.91
Valencia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.91 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Espanyol come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 10D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (10W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Espanyol against 1.22 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Espanyol's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Espanyol are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 64%.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Valencia in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Valencia have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Valencia away?
Espanyol's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.78 PPG; Valencia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valencia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Espanyol
6
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Valencia have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 50%, Valencia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Espanyol) and 50% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Valencia in 33%; Valencia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Espanyol's games and 61% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Espanyol vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Espanyol's recent games and 50% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Valencia tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Valencia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Espanyol and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.10 xG and Valencia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Valencia attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 39% | Draw 33% | Valencia 29%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 47%, Valencia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.11 PPG, Valencia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.