Espanyol 1-0 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Espanyol and Real Sociedad meet at RCDE Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Espanyol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Espanyol have posted 4W 2D 1L at RCDE Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RCDE Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Real Sociedad arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Espanyol — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 43% versus Real Sociedad 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Espanyol 36% | Real Sociedad 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.21 xG and Real Sociedad 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 1.021 / defence 0.867 | Real Sociedad attack 1.167 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.151. Data: 14 Espanyol games / 14 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 35% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 33%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 43% | Real Sociedad 57%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 35% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Espanyol 1.21 / Real Sociedad 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 1.021 / def 0.867 | Real Sociedad attack 1.167 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Real Sociedad xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Real Sociedad?
Espanyol 1 - 0 Real Sociedad.
Where is Espanyol vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Real Sociedad part of?
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 35% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Espanyol and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Real Sociedad in?
Espanyol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Espanyol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.17x) against Espanyol's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.21
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.37
1.16
Real Sociedad xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.16 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Espanyol come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (8W 5D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Espanyol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Espanyol's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Espanyol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.36 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Real Sociedad in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 8W 5D 1L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Real Sociedad away?
Espanyol's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 2.00 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Espanyol
2
Draws
5
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Espanyol 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 43%, Real Sociedad 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Espanyol) and 43% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Espanyol's recent matches and 57% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Espanyol's recent games and 43% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Real Sociedad 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Real Sociedad 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.21 xG and Real Sociedad 1.16 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against Real Sociedad attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 35% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 33%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 36%, Real Sociedad 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Espanyol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.