Espanyol 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Espanyol welcome Osasuna to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.10 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Espanyol, 1 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 60% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 47% | Osasuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.12 xG and Osasuna 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.989 / defence 1.192 | Osasuna attack 0.823 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 0.966. Data: 57 Espanyol games / 57 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Osasuna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Espanyol 60% | Osasuna 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Espanyol 1.12 / Osasuna 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.989 / def 1.192 | Osasuna attack 0.823 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.261 / away 0.966 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Osasuna xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Osasuna kick off?
Espanyol vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Espanyol 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Espanyol vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Osasuna part of?
Espanyol vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Espanyol and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Espanyol 0W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.33
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.07
0.95
Osasuna xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.95 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 57 games, going 14W 20D 23L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.32 PPG from 57 outings (20W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.09 PPG, Osasuna on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.96 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 14W 20D 23L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Osasuna away?
Espanyol's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.50 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Espanyol's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Espanyol
4
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Osasuna have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 54%, Osasuna 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Espanyol and 29% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Osasuna in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Espanyol's recent matches and 39% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Espanyol's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Osasuna tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.12 xG and Osasuna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against Osasuna attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 30%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 47%, Osasuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.09 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.