Espanyol 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Granada CF travel to RCDE Stadium to take on Espanyol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Espanyol stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 3W 2D 1L from 6 La Liga appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RCDE Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF away from home this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.20 PPG versus Granada CF's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Granada CF in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 54% versus Granada CF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 46% | Granada CF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.14 xG and Granada CF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.992 / defence 0.946 | Granada CF attack 0.826 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.051. Data: 12 Espanyol games / 11 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Granada CF 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 50% | Granada CF 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Espanyol 1.14 / Granada CF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.992 / def 0.946 | Granada CF attack 0.826 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Granada CF xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Granada CF kick off?
Espanyol vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Granada CF?
Espanyol 2 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Espanyol vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Granada CF part of?
Espanyol vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 40% chance of winning, Granada CF a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Espanyol and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Granada CF in?
Espanyol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Espanyol's attack rating (0.99) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
40%
2.48
36%
2.80
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Espanyol xG
Total xG
1.96
0.82
Granada CF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.82 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.18 PPG, Granada CF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Granada CF away?
Espanyol's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.83 PPG; Granada CF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Espanyol
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Granada CF?
From 2 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Granada CF 0-0 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Granada CF?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 50%, Granada CF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Espanyol and 33% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Granada CF in 33%; Granada CF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Espanyol's recent matches and 33% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Espanyol's recent games and 33% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Granada CF tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Granada CF 2-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.14 xG and Granada CF 0.82 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Granada CF attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 40% | Draw 36% | Granada CF 24%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 46%, Granada CF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.18 PPG, Granada CF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.