Espanyol 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Espanyol take on Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to RCDE Stadium to face Espanyol in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Espanyol (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Espanyol have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves have collected 0.00 PPG across 4 La Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 4L. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Espanyol. A 0.60 PPG lead over Alaves (0.60 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Espanyol — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 50% versus Alaves 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 50% | Alaves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.02 xG and Alaves 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.844 / defence 1.119 | Alaves attack 0.719 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 0.860 / away 1.149. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Espanyol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Espanyol games / 4 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 33% | Draw 39% | Alaves 28%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Alaves 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 40% | Alaves 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 33% | Draw 39% | Alaves 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Espanyol 1.02 / Alaves 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.844 / def 1.119 | Alaves attack 0.719 / def 1.404 | league avg home 0.860 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Alaves xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Alaves kick off?
Espanyol vs Alaves kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Alaves?
Espanyol 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Espanyol vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Alaves part of?
Espanyol vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 33% chance of winning, Alaves a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Espanyol and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Alaves in?
Espanyol (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.84x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.72x) against Espanyol's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
39%
2.54
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Espanyol xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Alaves xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.93 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Espanyol's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Espanyol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 4L across 4 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Espanyol by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Espanyol are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 25%.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Alaves in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Alaves have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Alaves have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Espanyol
0
Draws
3
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Alaves?
From 6 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 3, Alaves have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Espanyol 1-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 50%, Alaves 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Espanyol) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Espanyol have failed to score in 50% of games; Alaves in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Espanyol's recent matches and 25% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Espanyol's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Alaves tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alaves in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Alaves 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.02 xG and Alaves 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Alaves attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 33% | Draw 39% | Alaves 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Espanyol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 50%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Espanyol conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.