Elche 3-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Villarreal meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Elche (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Villarreal have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Villarreal are 1.30 PPG clear of Elche in recent La Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Elche, 2 for Villarreal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Elche — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Villarreal — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 53% versus Villarreal 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 54% | Villarreal 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 0.78 xG and Villarreal 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.743 / defence 1.263 | Villarreal attack 0.897 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 0.966. Elche's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Elche games / 57 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 26% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43%. Fair-value odds: Elche 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Villarreal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Elche 60% | Villarreal 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 26% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Elche 0.78 / Villarreal 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.743 / def 1.263 | Villarreal attack 0.897 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.260 / away 0.966 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Villarreal xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Villarreal kick off?
Elche vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Villarreal?
Elche 3 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Elche vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Villarreal part of?
Elche vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 26% chance of winning, Villarreal a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Elche and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Elche 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Elche and Villarreal in?
Elche (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Elche's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (0.90x) against Elche's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
26%
3.86
32%
3.17
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Elche xG
Total xG
1.88
1.09
Villarreal xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 16.8 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Elche and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Elche and 1.09 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Elche's recent record stands at 11W 15D 31L from 57 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 17L across 57 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Elche heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Elche have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Elche are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.47 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 11W 15D 31L in their last 57 games (0.84 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 25W 15D 17L in their last 57 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.07 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Elche or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Elche have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Villarreal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Villarreal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 4-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Elche
0
Draws
4
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Villarreal?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 2, Villarreal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 57%, Villarreal 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Elche) and 32% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 32%; Elche have failed to score in 32% of games; Villarreal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Elche's recent matches and 32% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Elche's recent games and 32% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Villarreal tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Villarreal 3-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 0.78 xG and Villarreal 1.09 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.74 / defence 1.26 against Villarreal attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 26% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 43%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Elche win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 54%, Villarreal 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Elche winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.