Elche 1-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Elche at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Elche host Valladolid at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Elche — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Elche 0.80 PPG, Valladolid 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Elche have won 0, Valladolid 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Valladolid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Elche in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 50% versus Valladolid 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 58% | Valladolid 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.54 xG and Valladolid 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.865 / defence 1.273 | Valladolid attack 0.676 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 0.981. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Elche games / 24 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 54% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 21%. Fair-value odds: Elche 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Valladolid 4.76. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Elche at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Elche 60% | Valladolid 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 54% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Elche 1.54 / Valladolid 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.865 / def 1.273 | Valladolid attack 0.676 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.363 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Elche (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Valladolid xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Valladolid kick off?
Elche vs Valladolid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Valladolid?
Elche 1 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Elche vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Valladolid part of?
Elche vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 54% chance of winning, Valladolid a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Elche and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W.
What form are Elche and Valladolid in?
Elche (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Valladolid (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Elche's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.90
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Elche xG
Total xG
2.39
0.84
Valladolid xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Elche and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Elche and 0.84 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Elche have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 2W 6D 16L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid's form line: 8W 3D 13L from 24 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valladolid are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Elche.
Venue Form
On home soil, Elche have posted 0.50 PPG from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 9L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Elche are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid in 29%.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 2W 6D 16L in their last 24 games (0.50 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 8W 3D 13L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Valladolid away?
Valladolid's away record (0.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 0.50 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Elche
1
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Valladolid?
From 2 meetings on record, Elche have won 0, Valladolid have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Elche 1-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Valladolid?
Valladolid have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 58%, Valladolid 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Elche) and 58% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 42% of games; Valladolid in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Elche's recent matches and 33% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Elche's recent games and 58% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Valladolid tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Valladolid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche and Valladolid finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.54 xG and Valladolid 0.84 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against Valladolid attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 54% | Draw 26% | Valladolid 21%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 58%, Valladolid 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valladolid arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.