Elche 3-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Elche at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Elche welcome Alaves to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Elche — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alaves have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Elche carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Elche, 1 for Alaves and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Elche in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Alaves in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 59% versus Alaves 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 50% | Alaves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.46 xG and Alaves 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.836 / defence 1.056 | Alaves attack 0.734 / defence 1.590. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.126. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.590 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Elche games / 22 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 50% | Draw 29% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Alaves 4.76. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Elche at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 50% | Alaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 50% | Draw 29% | Alaves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Elche 1.46 / Alaves 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.836 / def 1.056 | Alaves attack 0.734 / def 1.590 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Elche (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alaves xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Alaves kick off?
Elche vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Alaves?
Elche 3 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Elche vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Alaves part of?
Elche vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 50% chance of winning, Alaves a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Elche and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 0 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Elche and Alaves in?
Elche (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.84x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.49
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Elche xG
Total xG
2.34
0.87
Alaves xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Elche and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Elche and 0.87 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Elche come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 8D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 1.05 PPG, Alaves on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Elche's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Elche are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.73 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Alaves in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Alaves away?
Elche's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.40 PPG; Alaves away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Elche and Alaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Elche's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
1
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Alaves have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Elche 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 50%, Alaves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Elche) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Elche have failed to score in 30% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Elche's recent matches and 40% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Elche's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Alaves tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alaves in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Alaves 3-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.46 xG and Alaves 0.87 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.59, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 50% | Draw 29% | Alaves 21%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 50%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 1.05 PPG, Alaves 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.