Celta Vigo 1-2 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 36%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Celta Vigo vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 2D 5L at Abanca-Balaídos — 0.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.62 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abanca-Balaídos this season.
Valencia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Celta Vigo's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 40% versus Valencia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 40% | Valencia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.23 xG and Valencia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.853 / defence 1.358 | Valencia attack 0.793 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.140. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Celta Vigo games / 15 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 28% | Valencia 36%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Valencia 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 50% | Valencia 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 28% | Valencia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Celta Vigo 1.23 / Valencia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.853 / def 1.358 | Valencia attack 0.793 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Valencia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Valencia kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Valencia?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Valencia.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Valencia part of?
Celta Vigo vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 36% chance of winning, Valencia a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Celta Vigo and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Valencia in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Valencia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.85x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.79x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.53
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
Valencia xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.23 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.27 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 67%.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Valencia in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Valencia have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Valencia away?
Valencia's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.71 PPG; Valencia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valencia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Celta Vigo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Valencia 2-3 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 43%, Valencia 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Celta Vigo) and 57% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 43% of games; Valencia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Celta Vigo's games and 71% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 57% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Valencia tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Valencia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.23 xG and Valencia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.85 / defence 1.36 against Valencia attack 0.79 / defence 1.42, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 28% | Valencia 36%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 40%, Valencia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valencia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.07 PPG, Valencia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.