Celta Vigo 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Celta Vigo take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sevilla make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Celta Vigo have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 La Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Abanca-Balaídos: 1W 0D 3L from 4 La Liga appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.43 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla away from home this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sevilla are 1.12 PPG clear of Celta Vigo in recent La Liga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.88). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sevilla — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Celta Vigo 29% | Sevilla 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 29% | Sevilla 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 0.82 xG and Sevilla 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.826 / defence 1.267 | Sevilla attack 0.696 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 0.908. Data: 8 Celta Vigo games / 7 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 30%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Sevilla 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Sevilla's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 50% | Sevilla 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Celta Vigo 0.82 / Sevilla 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.826 / def 1.267 | Sevilla attack 0.696 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.014 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sevilla xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Sevilla kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?
Celta Vigo 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Sevilla part of?
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 32% chance of winning, Sevilla a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Celta Vigo and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Sevilla in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Sevilla (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.43 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.70x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
38%
2.64
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
1.62
0.80
Sevilla xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.80 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sevilla by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Celta Vigo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sevilla's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.43 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Sevilla in 29%.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Sevilla in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Sevilla away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.00 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sevilla in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Celta Vigo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-0 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Sevilla?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Celta Vigo) and 33% (Sevilla) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Celta Vigo and 0% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sevilla in 33%; Celta Vigo have failed to score in 33% of games; Sevilla in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 33% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 0% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Sevilla tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Celta Vigo 0-1 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.82 xG and Sevilla 0.80 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Sevilla attack 0.70 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 29%, Sevilla 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.