Celta Vigo 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Levante travel to Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 February 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo at Abanca-Balaídos this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 0 for Levante and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Levante in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 38% versus Levante 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 38% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.92 xG and Levante 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.031 / defence 1.089 | Levante attack 0.756 / defence 1.636. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.178. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.636 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Celta Vigo games / 24 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Levante 17%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 50% | Levante 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Levante 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Celta Vigo 1.92 / Levante 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.031 / def 1.089 | Levante attack 0.756 / def 1.636 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Levante xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Levante kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 21 February 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Levante part of?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 58% chance of winning, Levante a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Celta Vigo and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 0 | Levante 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Levante (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.03x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.09
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.89
0.97
Levante xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
39.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.97 for Levante, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 14L across 24 games — 0.58 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Celta Vigo by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.00 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Levante have gone 2W 8D 14L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Levante away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.17 PPG; Levante away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Levante in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Levante 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Celta Vigo) and 58% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 50% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 58% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Levante tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 25, as Celta Vigo and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.92 xG and Levante 0.97 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Levante attack 0.76 / defence 1.64, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Levante 17%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 38%, Levante 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.