Celta Vigo 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Celta Vigo take on Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Granada CF at Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 1W 1D 4L from 6 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 0W 0D 3L at Abanca-Balaídos — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abanca-Balaídos this season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in La Liga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.67 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 0.50 (Granada CF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 50% versus Granada CF 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 50% | Granada CF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 0.96 xG and Granada CF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.804 / defence 1.346 | Granada CF attack 0.673 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.089. Data: 6 Celta Vigo games / 6 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 30% | Draw 39% | Granada CF 31%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Granada CF 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 67% | Granada CF 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 30% | Draw 39% | Granada CF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Celta Vigo 0.96 / Granada CF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.804 / def 1.346 | Granada CF attack 0.673 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Granada CF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Granada CF kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF part of?
Celta Vigo vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 30% chance of winning, Granada CF a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Celta Vigo and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Granada CF in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Granada CF (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.83 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
39%
2.58
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
1.95
0.99
Granada CF xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.99 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 0.67 PPG, Granada CF on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 67%.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Granada CF away?
Granada CF's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.00 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Granada CF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Granada CF?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 67%, Granada CF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Celta Vigo) and 33% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Granada CF in 33%; Celta Vigo have failed to score in 33% of games; Granada CF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 33% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 33% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Granada CF tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Granada CF 1-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.96 xG and Granada CF 0.99 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.80 / defence 1.35 against Granada CF attack 0.67 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 30% | Draw 39% | Granada CF 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 50%, Granada CF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.67 PPG, Granada CF 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.