Celta Vigo 3-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo at Abanca-Balaídos this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cadiz have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Celta Vigo, 1.10 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 39% versus Cadiz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 37% | Cadiz 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.38 xG and Cadiz 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.103 / defence 1.266 | Cadiz attack 0.786 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.212. Data: 41 Celta Vigo games / 41 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 33%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Cadiz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Celta Vigo 50% | Cadiz 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.38 / Cadiz 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.103 / def 1.266 | Cadiz attack 0.786 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cadiz xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Celta Vigo 3 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz part of?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 41% chance of winning, Cadiz a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.10x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.79x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.80
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.59
1.21
Cadiz xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.21 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.95 PPG from 41 outings (8W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Celta Vigo against 0.95 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.85 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Cadiz away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.30 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cadiz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Celta Vigo) and 40% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 35%; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 40% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Cadiz tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Cadiz 3-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.38 xG and Cadiz 1.21 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.10 / defence 1.27 against Cadiz attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 26% | Cadiz 33%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 37%, Cadiz 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.22 PPG, Cadiz 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.