Celta Vigo 1-2 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 17 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L D L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 La Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.25 for Celta Vigo, 0.50 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 50% and Cadiz 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 50% | Cadiz 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 0.93 xG and Cadiz 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.830 / defence 1.232 | Cadiz attack 0.850 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 0.957 / away 1.101. Data: 4 Celta Vigo games / 4 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 27% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 38%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Cadiz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Celta Vigo 50% | Cadiz 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 27% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Celta Vigo 0.93 / Cadiz 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.830 / def 1.232 | Cadiz attack 0.850 / def 1.167 | league avg home 0.957 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Cadiz.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz part of?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 27% chance of winning, Cadiz a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Celta Vigo and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.85x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
27%
3.74
35%
2.86
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.08
1.15
Cadiz xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.15 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for Celta Vigo against 0.50 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz in 75%.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Cadiz 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Celta Vigo) and 25% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Celta Vigo's games and 75% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 25% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Cadiz tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cadiz edge out Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.93 xG and Cadiz 1.15 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cadiz outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Cadiz attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 27% | Draw 35% | Cadiz 38%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 50%, Cadiz 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.25 PPG, Cadiz 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.