Celta Vigo 4-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 4W 3D 3L at Abanca-Balaídos — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Celta Vigo against 0.80 for Alaves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 38% versus Alaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 32% | Alaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.73 xG and Alaves 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.931 / defence 1.266 | Alaves attack 0.677 / defence 1.738. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.143. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.738 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Celta Vigo games / 34 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 54% | Draw 25% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 54% | Draw 25% | Alaves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.73 / Alaves 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.931 / def 1.266 | Alaves attack 0.677 / def 1.738 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Alaves xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Alaves kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo 4 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Alaves part of?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 54% chance of winning, Alaves a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.93x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.68x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.95
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.71
0.98
Alaves xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.98 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 10D 14L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.82 PPG from 34 outings (7W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Celta Vigo against 0.82 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Celta Vigo's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.35 points per game from 17 outings (1W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.82 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Alaves have gone 7W 7D 20L in their last 34 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Alaves away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.12 PPG; Alaves away: 0.35 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alaves in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 53%, Alaves 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Celta Vigo) and 59% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 29% of games; Alaves in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 47% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 59% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Alaves tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alaves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Alaves 4-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.73 xG and Alaves 0.98 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Alaves attack 0.68 / defence 1.74, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 54% | Draw 25% | Alaves 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 32%, Alaves 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.18 PPG, Alaves 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.