Cadiz 0-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Cadiz welcome Villarreal to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Villarreal's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cadiz's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cadiz, 0 for Villarreal and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Cadiz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 41% versus Villarreal 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 39% | Villarreal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.67 xG and Villarreal 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.723 / defence 1.320 | Villarreal attack 1.046 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.210. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Villarreal's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Cadiz games / 44 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 15% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 61%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Villarreal 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Villarreal 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 15% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Cadiz 0.67 / Villarreal 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.723 / def 1.320 | Villarreal attack 1.046 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Villarreal xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Villarreal kick off?
Cadiz vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Cadiz vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Villarreal part of?
Cadiz vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 15% chance of winning, Villarreal a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cadiz and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.72x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
15%
6.79
24%
4.19
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.34
1.67
Villarreal xG
6.79
15%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
3%
36.06
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 16.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.67 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz's recent record stands at 9W 15D 20L from 44 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 12L across 44 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 3W 9D 10L from 22 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.66 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 9W 15D 20L in their last 44 games (0.95 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.82 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Villarreal in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Villarreal runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cadiz's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Villarreal have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 46%, Villarreal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cadiz) and 36% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 32%; Cadiz have failed to score in 41% of games; Villarreal in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cadiz's recent matches and 36% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cadiz's recent games and 36% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 7, as Cadiz and Villarreal drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.67 xG and Villarreal 1.67 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Villarreal landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.72 / defence 1.32 against Villarreal attack 1.05 / defence 0.68, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 15% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 61%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 39%, Villarreal 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.