Cadiz 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Cadiz welcome Villarreal to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Villarreal's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cadiz's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cadiz, 0 for Villarreal and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 50% versus Villarreal 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 36% | Villarreal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.84 xG and Villarreal 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.741 / defence 1.186 | Villarreal attack 0.918 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.110. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Cadiz games / 28 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 44%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Villarreal 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Villarreal 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Cadiz 0.84 / Villarreal 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.741 / def 1.186 | Villarreal attack 0.918 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Villarreal xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Villarreal kick off?
Cadiz vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Cadiz vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Villarreal part of?
Cadiz vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 25% chance of winning, Villarreal a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cadiz and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.74x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
25%
3.98
31%
3.26
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.05
1.21
Villarreal xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
13.31
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.21 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz's recent record stands at 4W 12D 12L from 28 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 7L across 28 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 1W 7D 5L from 13 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.71 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 4W 12D 12L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 12W 9D 7L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.77 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Villarreal in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Villarreal runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cadiz's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Villarreal have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 46%, Villarreal 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Cadiz and 31% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Villarreal in 31%; Cadiz have failed to score in 46% of games; Villarreal in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cadiz's recent matches and 38% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Cadiz's recent games and 31% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.84 xG and Villarreal 1.21 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 1.19 against Villarreal attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 25% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 44%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 36%, Villarreal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.