Cadiz 0-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Valencia meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Valencia have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.14. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Valencia arrive in superior form — a 0.71 PPG advantage (1.57 vs 0.86) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cadiz 71% and Valencia 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 43% | Valencia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.01 xG and Valencia 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.746 / defence 1.256 | Valencia attack 1.149 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.031. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Cadiz games / 7 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 29% | Valencia 47%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Valencia 2.13. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Valencia 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 29% | Valencia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Cadiz 1.01 / Valencia 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.746 / def 1.256 | Valencia attack 1.149 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Valencia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Valencia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Valencia kick off?
Cadiz vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Valencia?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Cadiz vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Valencia part of?
Cadiz vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Valencia a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cadiz and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Valencia in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.15x) against Cadiz's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
24%
4.14
29%
3.46
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.49
Valencia xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.49 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Valencia are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Valencia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Valencia in 71%.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Valencia in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Valencia have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Valencia away?
Valencia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.33 PPG; Valencia away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
2
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Valencia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Valencia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Cadiz 1-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Cadiz, 100% for Valencia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 67% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Cadiz's games and 100% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 67% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Valencia tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Valencia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Valencia finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.01 xG and Valencia 1.49 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 1.26 against Valencia attack 1.15 / defence 1.32, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 29% | Valencia 47%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 43%, Valencia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.