Cadiz 0-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 4W 6D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cadiz, 2 for Sevilla and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 44% versus Sevilla 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 36% | Sevilla 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.80 xG and Sevilla 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.983 / defence 1.006 | Sevilla attack 0.913 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.975. Sevilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Cadiz games / 64 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 59% | Draw 23% | Sevilla 18%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Sevilla 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cadiz (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cadiz 50% | Sevilla 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 59% | Draw 23% | Sevilla 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Cadiz 1.80 / Sevilla 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.983 / def 1.006 | Sevilla attack 0.913 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sevilla xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Sevilla kick off?
Cadiz vs Sevilla kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Cadiz 0 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Cadiz vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Sevilla part of?
Cadiz vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 59% chance of winning, Sevilla a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cadiz and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Sevilla?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Cadiz and Sevilla in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sevilla (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.91x) against Cadiz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.38
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.70
0.90
Sevilla xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
33.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.90 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 25D 25L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 25W 23D 16L from 64 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (7W 15D 10L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 8W 14D 10L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.28 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 25D 25L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 25W 23D 16L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.12 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sevilla in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Sevilla?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Sevilla have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 47%, Sevilla 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Cadiz and 28% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cadiz's recent matches and 59% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cadiz's recent games and 28% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Cadiz 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.80 xG and Sevilla 0.90 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sevilla outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Sevilla attack 0.91 / defence 1.38, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 59% | Draw 23% | Sevilla 18%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sevilla win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 36%, Sevilla 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.