Cadiz 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 3 January 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 0W 5D 4L from 9 La Liga appearances (0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sevilla have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's away record: 4W 3D 2L from 9 road trips in La Liga this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sevilla arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 56% versus Sevilla 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 39% | Sevilla 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.62 xG and Sevilla 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.659 / defence 1.379 | Sevilla attack 0.800 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.135. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Cadiz games / 18 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 17% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 50%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 5.88 | Draw 3.12 | Sevilla 2.00. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cadiz's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 56% | Sevilla 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jan 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 17% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Cadiz 0.62 / Sevilla 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.659 / def 1.379 | Sevilla attack 0.800 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sevilla xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Sevilla kick off?
Cadiz vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 3 January 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Cadiz 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Cadiz vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Sevilla part of?
Cadiz vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 17% chance of winning, Sevilla a 50% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cadiz and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Sevilla in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sevilla (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.66x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.80x) against Cadiz's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
17%
5.87
32%
3.08
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.87
1.25
Sevilla xG
5.87
17%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
5%
20.51
27%
3.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 19.3 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.25 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 8D 8L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 11W 5D 2L from 18 games, 2.11 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (0W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.61 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.56 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sevilla in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Sevilla?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Sevilla have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 56%, Sevilla 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Cadiz and 11% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Sevilla in 56%; Cadiz have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Cadiz's recent matches and 33% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Cadiz's recent games and 11% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Cadiz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Cadiz 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.62 xG and Sevilla 1.25 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.66 / defence 1.38 against Sevilla attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 17% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 50%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 39%, Sevilla 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.