Cadiz 0-2 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Madrid at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Real Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Real Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 4W 5D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 1.50 PPG, Real Madrid 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cadiz, 1 for Real Madrid and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Real Madrid winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 42% versus Real Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 35% | Real Madrid 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.95 xG and Real Madrid 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.859 / defence 1.064 | Real Madrid attack 1.151 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.053. Data: 66 Cadiz games / 66 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 27% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 44%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Real Madrid 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 27% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Cadiz 0.95 / Real Madrid 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.859 / def 1.064 | Real Madrid attack 1.151 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Real Madrid xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Madrid kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Cadiz 0 - 2 Real Madrid.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Madrid part of?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 27% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cadiz and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 2 | Real Madrid 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in?
Cadiz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Real Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
27%
3.66
28%
3.53
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.24
1.29
Real Madrid xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.29 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 25D 26L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Real Madrid's form line: 44W 13D 9L from 66 games, 2.20 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (7W 15D 11L).
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 22W 4D 7L from 33 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.11 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 15W 25D 26L in their last 66 games (1.06 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 44W 13D 9L in their last 66 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.09 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Real Madrid runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
4
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Real Madrid have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 46%, Real Madrid 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 61% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Madrid in 33%; Cadiz have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cadiz's recent matches and 58% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 61% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Cadiz 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.95 xG and Real Madrid 1.29 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Real Madrid attack 1.15 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 27% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 44%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 35%, Real Madrid 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.