Cadiz 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cadiz welcome Real Betis to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Real Betis — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cadiz, 1 for Real Betis and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Real Betis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 43% versus Real Betis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 38% | Real Betis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.84 xG and Real Betis 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.760 / defence 1.238 | Real Betis attack 0.826 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.173. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Cadiz games / 47 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 44%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Real Betis 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Real Betis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Cadiz 0.84 / Real Betis 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.760 / def 1.238 | Real Betis attack 0.826 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Real Betis xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Betis kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Betis part of?
Cadiz vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 26% chance of winning, Real Betis a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cadiz and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Real Betis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.76x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
26%
3.89
30%
3.35
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.04
1.20
Real Betis xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.20 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 9W 18D 20L from 47 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 13L across 47 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 3W 10D 10L from 23 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.60 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 9W 18D 20L in their last 47 games (0.96 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 25W 9D 13L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.83 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Real Betis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 44%, Real Betis 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cadiz) and 52% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Real Betis in 39%; Cadiz have failed to score in 44% of games; Real Betis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cadiz's recent matches and 48% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cadiz's recent games and 52% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Betis tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Real Betis finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.84 xG and Real Betis 1.20 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Real Betis landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against Real Betis attack 0.83 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 26% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 44%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Real Betis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.