Cadiz 0-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Osasuna at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cadiz at 1.30 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Osasuna have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Cadiz.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Osasuna have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 41% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 34% | Osasuna 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.96 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.811 / defence 1.121 | Osasuna attack 0.813 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.033. Data: 68 Cadiz games / 68 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Cadiz 0.96 / Osasuna 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.811 / def 1.121 | Osasuna attack 0.813 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Osasuna xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Osasuna kick off?
Cadiz vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Cadiz 0 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Cadiz vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Osasuna part of?
Cadiz vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 35% chance of winning, Osasuna a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cadiz and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Cadiz and Osasuna in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.14
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.90
0.94
Osasuna xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.94 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 15W 26D 27L from 68 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 26L across 68 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.04 PPG, Osasuna on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 7W 15D 12L from 34 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.96 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 15W 26D 27L in their last 68 games (1.04 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.06 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Osasuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 44%, Osasuna 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Cadiz and 29% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 38% of games; Osasuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cadiz's recent matches and 41% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Osasuna tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Cadiz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.96 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 34%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 34%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.04 PPG, Osasuna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.