Cadiz 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cadiz at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 1W 6D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Mallorca 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 45% versus Mallorca 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 38% | Mallorca 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.05 xG and Mallorca 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.850 / defence 1.161 | Mallorca attack 0.854 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.028. Data: 56 Cadiz games / 56 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 34%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Cadiz 1.05 / Mallorca 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.850 / def 1.161 | Mallorca attack 0.854 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Mallorca kick off?
Cadiz vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Cadiz 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Cadiz vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Mallorca part of?
Cadiz vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 36% chance of winning, Mallorca a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cadiz and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.85x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.85x) against Cadiz's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.31
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.07
1.02
Mallorca xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.02 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 22D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.14 PPG from 56 outings (17W 13D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Cadiz against 1.14 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 4W 14D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 11W 22D 23L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Mallorca away?
Cadiz's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.93 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mallorca in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 50%, Mallorca 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cadiz) and 43% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 39% of games; Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cadiz's recent matches and 43% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cadiz's recent games and 43% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.05 xG and Mallorca 1.02 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 34%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Mallorca 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.98 PPG, Mallorca 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.