Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 0W 3D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 54% versus Mallorca 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 36% | Mallorca 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.97 xG and Mallorca 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.587 / defence 1.264 | Mallorca attack 0.827 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.051. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cadiz games / 11 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 29% | Draw 35% | Mallorca 36%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Mallorca 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 33% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 29% | Draw 35% | Mallorca 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Cadiz 0.97 / Mallorca 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.587 / def 1.264 | Mallorca attack 0.827 / def 1.574 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mallorca xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Mallorca kick off?
Cadiz vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Cadiz vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Mallorca part of?
Cadiz vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 29% chance of winning, Mallorca a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cadiz and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.59x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.83x) against Cadiz's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
29%
3.43
35%
2.87
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.07
1.10
Mallorca xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.10 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 5D 5L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Mallorca in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Mallorca away?
Mallorca's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.40 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Mallorca in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Cadiz) and 40% (Mallorca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Cadiz and 40% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 80% of games; Mallorca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Cadiz's recent matches and 40% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cadiz's recent games and 40% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cadiz and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 12, as Cadiz and Mallorca drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.97 xG and Mallorca 1.10 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.59 / defence 1.26 against Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.57, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 29% | Draw 35% | Mallorca 36%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 36%, Mallorca 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.