Cadiz 1-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Granada CF at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 December 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 0W 4D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 1W 4D 3L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Granada CF are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 53% versus Granada CF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 47% | Granada CF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.85 xG and Granada CF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.645 / defence 1.410 | Granada CF attack 0.838 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.113. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Cadiz games / 15 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 23% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 47%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Granada CF 2.13. Granada CF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Granada CF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Granada CF 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 23% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Cadiz 0.85 / Granada CF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.645 / def 1.410 | Granada CF attack 0.838 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Granada CF xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Granada CF kick off?
Cadiz vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Cadiz vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Granada CF part of?
Cadiz vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 23% chance of winning, Granada CF a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cadiz and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Granada CF in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Granada CF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
23%
4.32
30%
3.30
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.16
1.32
Granada CF xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 15.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.32 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 0.73 PPG, Granada CF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cadiz's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.07 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 60%.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Granada CF away?
Granada CF's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.43 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Granada CF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Granada CF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 43%, Granada CF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cadiz) and 43% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 57% of games; Granada CF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cadiz's recent matches and 43% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cadiz's recent games and 43% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Granada CF tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Granada CF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 17, as Cadiz and Granada CF drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.85 xG and Granada CF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.65 / defence 1.41 against Granada CF attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 23% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 47%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 47%, Granada CF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.73 PPG, Granada CF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.