Cadiz 2-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Cadiz welcome Girona to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Girona — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 1.20 PPG, Girona 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cadiz, 0 for Girona and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 40% versus Girona 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 40% | Girona 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.37 xG and Girona 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.922 / defence 1.104 | Girona attack 0.962 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 0.964. Data: 58 Cadiz games / 20 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Girona 3.57. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 40% | Girona 78%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Cadiz 1.37 / Girona 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.922 / def 1.104 | Girona attack 0.962 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.286 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Girona xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Girona kick off?
Cadiz vs Girona kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Girona?
Cadiz 2 - 0 Girona.
Where is Cadiz vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Girona part of?
Cadiz vs Girona is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 45% chance of winning, Girona a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cadiz and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Girona 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Girona in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.92) and Girona's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.68
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.40
1.02
Girona xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.02 for Girona, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 7D 9L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona's form line: 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 0.95 PPG, Girona on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
On the road, Girona have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.35 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 75%.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Girona in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Girona have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Girona away?
Cadiz's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.22 PPG; Girona away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Girona in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Girona have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Girona won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 44%, Girona 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cadiz) and 56% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Cadiz's games and 78% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cadiz's recent games and 56% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Girona tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Girona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Girona 2-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.37 xG and Girona 1.02 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Girona attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 45% | Draw 27% | Girona 28%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 40%, Girona 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Girona's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.95 PPG, Girona 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.