Cadiz 2-2 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Espanyol at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Espanyol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Cadiz (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Espanyol are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Espanyol 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Espanyol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 50% versus Espanyol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 35% | Espanyol 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.87 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.619 / defence 1.370 | Espanyol attack 0.794 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.073. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cadiz games / 20 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 33% | Espanyol 41%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Espanyol 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 50% | Espanyol 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 26% | Draw 33% | Espanyol 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cadiz 0.87 / Espanyol 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.619 / def 1.370 | Espanyol attack 0.794 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Espanyol xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Espanyol kick off?
Cadiz vs Espanyol kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Cadiz 2 - 2 Espanyol.
Where is Cadiz vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Espanyol part of?
Cadiz vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 26% chance of winning, Espanyol a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cadiz and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Espanyol in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Espanyol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.62) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.79x) against Cadiz's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
26%
3.84
33%
3.07
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.04
1.17
Espanyol xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.17 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cadiz come into this having played 20 games, going 2W 8D 10L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Espanyol sit at 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cadiz's home form reads 0W 5D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Espanyol have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.15 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 8D 10L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Espanyol away?
Espanyol's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.50 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Espanyol in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Espanyol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Espanyol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Espanyol 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 50%, Espanyol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Cadiz and 50% for Espanyol.
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 50% of games; Espanyol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cadiz's recent matches and 50% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cadiz's recent games and 50% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Espanyol tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Espanyol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 21, as Cadiz and Espanyol drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.87 xG and Espanyol 1.17 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Espanyol outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.62 / defence 1.37 against Espanyol attack 0.79 / defence 1.29, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 26% | Draw 33% | Espanyol 41%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 35%, Espanyol 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.