Cadiz 0-4 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barcelona at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Barcelona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Barcelona at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Barcelona — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Barcelona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Barcelona away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Barcelona — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cadiz have won 1, Barcelona 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Barcelona in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 43% versus Barcelona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 38% | Barcelona 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.81 xG and Barcelona 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.800 / defence 1.236 | Barcelona attack 1.534 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.180. Barcelona's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.534 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Cadiz games / 42 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 12% | Draw 18% | Barcelona 70%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Barcelona 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Barcelona (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barcelona are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 40% | Barcelona 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 12% | Draw 18% | Barcelona 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 50% | xG Cadiz 0.81 / Barcelona 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.800 / def 1.236 | Barcelona attack 1.534 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Barcelona xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Barcelona kick off?
Cadiz vs Barcelona kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Cadiz 0 - 4 Barcelona.
Where is Cadiz vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Barcelona part of?
Cadiz vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 12% chance of winning, Barcelona a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 1 | Barcelona 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Barcelona (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Barcelona's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
12%
8.26
18%
5.51
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Cadiz xG
Total xG
3.05
2.24
Barcelona xG
8.26
12%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
11%
9.37
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
1%
77.41
31%
3.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cadiz and 2.24 for Barcelona, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 15D 19L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Barcelona sit at 1.98 PPG from 42 outings (24W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Barcelona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Barcelona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cadiz's home form reads 3W 9D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Barcelona have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (11W 8D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 1.88 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Barcelona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 24W 11D 7L in their last 42 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.86 PPG; Barcelona away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Barcelona in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Barcelona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Barcelona go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Barcelona won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Barcelona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Barcelona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cadiz 0-1 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 48%, Barcelona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 52% (Barcelona).
On the defensive side: Barcelona in 33%; Cadiz have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Barcelona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cadiz's recent matches and 57% of Barcelona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 52% of Barcelona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Barcelona tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Barcelona run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona beat Cadiz 0-4 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.81 xG and Barcelona 2.24 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Barcelona outscored their 2.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Barcelona attack 1.53 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 12% | Draw 18% | Barcelona 70%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Barcelona 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barcelona's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Barcelona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.