Cadiz 0-0 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barcelona at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Barcelona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Barcelona at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 1W 2D 2L from 5 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season.
Barcelona — All Games: 2W 2D 0L from 4 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Barcelona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Barcelona — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cadiz register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Barcelona in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Barcelona in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cadiz 75% and Barcelona 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 50% | Barcelona 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.00 xG and Barcelona 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.862 / defence 1.352 | Barcelona attack 0.831 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.182. Data: 5 Cadiz games / 4 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 35% | Barcelona 40%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Barcelona 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barcelona are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barcelona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 67% | Barcelona 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 35% | Barcelona 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Cadiz 1.00 / Barcelona 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.862 / def 1.352 | Barcelona attack 0.831 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Barcelona xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Barcelona kick off?
Cadiz vs Barcelona kicked off at 21:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Barcelona.
Where is Cadiz vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Barcelona part of?
Cadiz vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Barcelona a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Barcelona (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Barcelona's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Barcelona's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
24%
4.10
35%
2.83
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.33
1.33
Barcelona xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.33 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Barcelona sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Barcelona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Barcelona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Barcelona in 100%.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Barcelona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Barcelona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Barcelona go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Barcelona won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Barcelona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Barcelona?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Barcelona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cadiz 0-1 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cadiz at 75%, Barcelona at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cadiz) and 50% (Barcelona).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Barcelona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cadiz's games and 100% of Barcelona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cadiz's recent games and 50% of Barcelona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Barcelona tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 6, as Cadiz and Barcelona drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.00 xG and Barcelona 1.33 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Barcelona landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Barcelona attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 35% | Barcelona 40%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 50%, Barcelona 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barcelona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Barcelona managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.