Cadiz 1-4 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Atletico Madrid meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cadiz (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 0W 4D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 0.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.83 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Atletico Madrid arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 46% versus Atletico Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 38% | Atletico Madrid 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.90 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.627 / defence 1.189 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.128 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.140. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.627 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Cadiz games / 13 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 21% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 51%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Madrid 1.96. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cadiz 43% | Atletico Madrid 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 21% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Cadiz 0.90 / Atletico Madrid 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.627 / def 1.189 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.128 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Atletico Madrid xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Cadiz 1 - 4 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 21% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cadiz and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Atletico Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.13x) against Cadiz's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
21%
4.77
28%
3.54
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.43
1.53
Atletico Madrid xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
5%
22.01
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.53 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (7W 5D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 7W 5D 1L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.50 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 5-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
0
Draws
4
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Atletico Madrid?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Cadiz 2-0 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 33%, Atletico Madrid 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Cadiz) and 83% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Cadiz's games and 83% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Cadiz's recent games and 83% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Cadiz 1-4 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.90 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.53 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.63 / defence 1.19 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.13 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 21% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 51%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Atletico Madrid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.