Cadiz 2-3 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cadiz welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Athletic Club's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cadiz) versus 1.40 (Athletic Club). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cadiz, 0 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 47% versus Athletic Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 34% | Athletic Club 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.96 xG and Athletic Club 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.801 / defence 1.145 | Athletic Club attack 0.712 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.130. Data: 32 Cadiz games / 32 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Athletic Club 33%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Athletic Club 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 60% | Athletic Club 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Athletic Club 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Cadiz 0.96 / Athletic Club 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.801 / def 1.145 | Athletic Club attack 0.712 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Athletic Club xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Athletic Club kick off?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 April 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Cadiz 2 - 3 Athletic Club.
Where is Cadiz vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Athletic Club part of?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 35% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cadiz and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Athletic Club in?
Cadiz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.80x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.89
0.92
Athletic Club xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.92 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 6W 13D 13L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Athletic Club's form line: 11W 12D 9L from 32 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (2W 8D 6L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 3W 9D 4L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 6W 13D 13L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 11W 12D 9L in their last 32 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.88 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2022, when Athletic Club won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Athletic Club have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 50%, Athletic Club 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cadiz and 19% for Athletic Club.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Athletic Club in 44%; Cadiz have failed to score in 38% of games; Athletic Club in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cadiz's recent matches and 38% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cadiz's recent games and 19% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Athletic Club defy the odds to beat Cadiz 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Cadiz 2-3 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.96 xG and Athletic Club 0.92 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 35% | Draw 32% | Athletic Club 33%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 34%, Athletic Club 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Athletic Club's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.