Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Atletico Madrid welcome Osasuna to Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano this season: 3W 3D 0L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.17 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Atletico Madrid) versus 1.40 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Atletico Madrid trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 58% versus Osasuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 67% | Osasuna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.32 xG and Osasuna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.188 / defence 0.976 | Osasuna attack 0.988 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.112. Data: 12 Atletico Madrid games / 13 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 40% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Madrid 33% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Wanda Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 40% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Atletico Madrid 1.32 / Osasuna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.188 / def 0.976 | Osasuna attack 0.988 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Osasuna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 40% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.16
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.39
1.07
Osasuna xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.07 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Madrid come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 5D 1L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Madrid's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Atletico Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 33%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atletico Madrid) and 50% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Osasuna in 33%; Osasuna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Osasuna tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.32 xG and Osasuna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Osasuna attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 40% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 28%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 67%, Osasuna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.