Atletico Madrid 0-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Levante travel to Estadio Wanda Metropolitano to take on Atletico Madrid. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 February 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Atletico Madrid have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levante have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atletico Madrid, 0 for Levante and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Levante in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 65% versus Levante 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 70% | Levante 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.80 xG and Levante 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / defence 1.274 | Levante attack 0.772 / defence 1.855. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.135. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.855 — this is suppressing Atletico Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Atletico Madrid games / 23 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 71% | Draw 17% | Levante 12%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Levante 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Madrid 50% | Levante 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Wanda Metropolitano • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 71% | Draw 17% | Levante 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 64% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.80 / Levante 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.320 / def 1.274 | Levante attack 0.772 / def 1.855 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Levante xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Levante kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Levante kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Levante?
Atletico Madrid 0 - 1 Levante.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Levante part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Levante is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 71% chance of winning, Levante a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Madrid 0W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Levante in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Levante (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Madrid's attack at 1.32x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.85x — combine the two and it projects 2.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.86
12%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.92
1.12
Levante xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.86
17%
Draw
8.70
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
6%
16.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
1%
143.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.12 for Levante, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Madrid come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 6D 6L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.48 PPG from 23 outings (1W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Madrid's home form reads 7W 3D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.18 points per game from 11 outings (0W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Madrid have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Levante in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Levante have gone 1W 8D 14L in their last 23 (0.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Levante away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.18 PPG; Levante away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Atletico Madrid
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Levante 0-0 Atletico Madrid.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 46%, Levante 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atletico Madrid) and 64% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Levante in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 54% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 64% of Levante's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Levante tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Levante in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levante defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Atletico Madrid 0-1 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.80 xG and Levante 1.12 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.32 / defence 1.27 against Levante attack 0.77 / defence 1.85, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 71% | Draw 17% | Levante 12%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 70%, Levante 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.48. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.