Atletico Madrid 0-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Granada CF at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Atletico Madrid have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atletico Madrid register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Granada CF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Granada CF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Granada CF in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atletico Madrid 59% and Granada CF 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 66% | Granada CF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.34 xG and Granada CF 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.308 / defence 1.190 | Granada CF attack 0.959 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.103. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.620 — this is suppressing Atletico Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Atletico Madrid games / 32 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 61% | Draw 19% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Granada CF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Madrid 60% | Granada CF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Wanda Metropolitano • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 61% | Draw 19% | Granada CF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.34 / Granada CF 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.308 / def 1.190 | Granada CF attack 0.959 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Granada CF xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Atletico Madrid 0 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 61% chance of winning, Granada CF a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Madrid 0W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Granada CF in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.24
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.60
1.26
Granada CF xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
10%
10.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
53.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.26 for Granada CF, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 18W 6D 8L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 6W 11D 15L from 32 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 62%.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 18W 6D 8L in their last 32 games (1.88 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Granada CF away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.25 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Madrid
1
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 2, Granada CF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Granada CF?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 50%, Granada CF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Atletico Madrid) and 44% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Granada CF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 50% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 44% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Granada CF tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Madrid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Regular Season - 33, as Atletico Madrid and Granada CF drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.34 xG and Granada CF 1.26 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Madrid fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Granada CF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 1.19 against Granada CF attack 0.96 / defence 1.62, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 61% | Draw 19% | Granada CF 19%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 66%, Granada CF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.