Atletico Madrid 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Almeria at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Madrid stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Atletico Madrid have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano this season.
Almeria — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Almeria away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Atletico Madrid have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 0, Almeria 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Almeria in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 46% versus Almeria 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 36% | Almeria 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.66 xG and Almeria 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.307 / defence 0.741 | Almeria attack 0.969 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.040. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Atletico Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Atletico Madrid's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Atletico Madrid games / 28 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 78% | Draw 14% | Almeria 8%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Almeria 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Madrid 40% | Almeria 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 78% | Draw 14% | Almeria 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 49% | xG Atletico Madrid 2.66 / Almeria 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.307 / def 0.741 | Almeria attack 0.969 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Almeria xG
49%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Almeria kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Almeria?
Atletico Madrid 2 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Almeria part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 78% chance of winning, Almeria a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Madrid 0W | Draws 1 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Almeria in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Almeria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Madrid's attack rating (1.31) and Almeria's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.11
8%
12.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.41
0.75
Almeria xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.11
14%
Draw
12.44
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
7%
14.28
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
1%
177.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.75 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 17W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 8W 6D 14L from 28 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.08 PPG from 13 outings (8W 3D 2L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 4D 9L from 13 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 64%.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Almeria in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 17W 6D 5L in their last 28 games (2.04 PPG), while Almeria have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Almeria away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.08 PPG; Almeria away: 0.31 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Almeria in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Madrid and Almeria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Madrid
2
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 2, Almeria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Almeria?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 54%, Almeria 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atletico Madrid) and 54% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Almeria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Atletico Madrid's games and 62% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 54% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Almeria tend to score early?
Atletico Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Almeria in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Almeria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Almeria 2-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.66 xG and Almeria 0.75 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 0.74 against Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.50, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 78% | Draw 14% | Almeria 8%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 36%, Almeria 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.