Athletic Club 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
San Mamés Barria plays host to Athletic Club versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 9 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Athletic Club have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Athletic Club, 1.10 for Osasuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Athletic Club lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Athletic Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 42% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 40% | Osasuna 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.41 xG and Osasuna 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.101 / defence 0.805 | Osasuna attack 0.832 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.083. Data: 53 Athletic Club games / 53 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 19%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Osasuna 5.26. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 10% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Athletic Club 1.41 / Osasuna 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.101 / def 0.805 | Osasuna attack 0.832 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Osasuna kick off?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 9 January 2023 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Athletic Club vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Osasuna part of?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 53% chance of winning, Osasuna a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Athletic Club and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Athletic Club 2W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.83x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.64
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.14
0.72
Osasuna xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.72 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 21W 17D 15L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 19W 13D 21L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Athletic Club against 1.32 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (15W 4D 7L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 9W 6D 11L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 21W 17D 15L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Osasuna away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.88 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
4
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Osasuna have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 38%, Osasuna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Athletic Club) and 31% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 27% of games; Osasuna in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 38% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Athletic Club's recent games and 31% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Osasuna tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 16, as Athletic Club and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.41 xG and Osasuna 0.72 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Osasuna attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 19%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 40%, Osasuna 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.51 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.