Athletic Club 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Athletic Club take on Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Athletic Club welcome Mallorca to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: D D W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 0.66 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.33 vs 1.67). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Athletic Club 33% | Mallorca 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 0% | Mallorca 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 0.87 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.964 / defence 1.165 | Mallorca attack 0.834 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 0.897. Data: 3 Athletic Club games / 3 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 30% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 30%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | Mallorca 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 33% | Mallorca 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 30% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Athletic Club 0.87 / Mallorca 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.964 / def 1.165 | Mallorca attack 0.834 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.879 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mallorca xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Mallorca kick off?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Athletic Club 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Athletic Club vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Mallorca part of?
Athletic Club vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 30% chance of winning, Mallorca a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Athletic Club and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-D-W. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Athletic Club's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.34
40%
2.50
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
1.74
0.87
Mallorca xG
3.34
30%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 15.3 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.87 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Athletic Club.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Mallorca in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Athletic Club or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Mallorca in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2024, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Mallorca?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Athletic Club 33% BTTS, Mallorca 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Athletic Club and 0% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Mallorca in 67%; Athletic Club have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 33% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Athletic Club's recent games and 0% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Mallorca tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Mallorca 2-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 0.87 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 30% | Draw 40% | Mallorca 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 0%, Mallorca 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mallorca's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Athletic Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.