Athletic Club 3-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Athletic Club at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Athletic Club and Levante meet at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levante have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Athletic Club. A 0.60 PPG lead over Levante (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Athletic Club, 0 for Levante and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 46% versus Levante 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 38% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 2.03 xG and Levante 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.148 / defence 1.122 | Levante attack 0.762 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.136. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Athletic Club games / 26 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 61% | Draw 23% | Levante 16%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Levante 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 60% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 61% | Draw 23% | Levante 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Athletic Club 2.03 / Levante 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.148 / def 1.122 | Levante attack 0.762 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Levante xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Levante kick off?
Athletic Club vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Levante?
Athletic Club 3 - 1 Levante.
Where is Athletic Club vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Levante part of?
Athletic Club vs Levante is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 61% chance of winning, Levante a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Athletic Club and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Athletic Club 0W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Levante in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Levante (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.15) and Levante's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.76x) against Athletic Club's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.42
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
3.00
0.97
Levante xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
46.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.97 for Levante, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Athletic Club come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 10D 7L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.69 PPG from 26 outings (3W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Athletic Club's home form reads 6W 2D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.08 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Levante in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 9W 10D 7L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Levante have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Levante away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.67 PPG; Levante away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Levante in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Athletic Club have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Athletic Club 4-2 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Levante?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 58%, Levante 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Athletic Club) and 58% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Athletic Club's matches and 58% of Levante's.
Do Athletic Club and Levante tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Levante 3-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 2.03 xG and Levante 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Levante attack 0.76 / defence 1.50, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 61% | Draw 23% | Levante 16%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 38%, Levante 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.