Athletic Club 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Athletic Club welcome Cadiz to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at San Mamés Barria this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Athletic Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cadiz in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Cadiz trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 54% versus Cadiz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 18% | Cadiz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.57 xG and Cadiz 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.021 / defence 1.120 | Cadiz attack 1.031 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.053. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Athletic Club games / 12 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 27%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Cadiz 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 60% | Cadiz 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Athletic Club 1.57 / Cadiz 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.021 / def 1.120 | Cadiz attack 1.031 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cadiz xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Cadiz kick off?
Athletic Club vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Athletic Club 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Athletic Club vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Cadiz part of?
Athletic Club vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 43% chance of winning, Cadiz a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Athletic Club and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Cadiz in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.29
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.79
1.22
Cadiz xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.22 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 4W 6D 1L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.91 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 4W 6D 1L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Cadiz away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.00 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Cadiz in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2022, when Athletic Club won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
1
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Cadiz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Cadiz?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Athletic Club at 60%, Cadiz at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Athletic Club) and 60% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Athletic Club's games and 80% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Athletic Club vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Athletic Club's recent games and 60% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Cadiz tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Athletic Club 0-1 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.57 xG and Cadiz 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Cadiz attack 1.03 / defence 1.47, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 43% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 27%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cadiz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 18%, Cadiz 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.