Athletic Club 4-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Athletic Club and Almeria meet at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Athletic Club (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Athletic Club's home record at San Mamés Barria: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Almeria have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 La Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almeria away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Athletic Club's 1.70 PPG return is 1.03 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.67 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Athletic Club — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almeria — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 33% versus Almeria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 50% | Almeria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.36 xG and Almeria 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.947 / defence 0.873 | Almeria attack 0.597 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.217. Data: 44 Athletic Club games / 6 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 55% | Draw 28% | Almeria 17%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Almeria 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Almeria's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 30% | Almeria 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 55% | Draw 28% | Almeria 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Athletic Club 1.36 / Almeria 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.947 / def 0.873 | Almeria attack 0.597 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Almeria xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Almeria kick off?
Athletic Club vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Almeria?
Athletic Club 4 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Athletic Club vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Almeria part of?
Athletic Club vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 55% chance of winning, Almeria a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Athletic Club and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Almeria in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Almeria (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (0.95) and Almeria's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.60x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.56
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.00
0.63
Almeria xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
4%
22.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.63 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 4L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almeria's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Almeria in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Almeria have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Almeria away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.00 PPG; Almeria away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Almeria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 4-0 on 30 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
1
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Almeria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Almeria?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Athletic Club) and 33% (Almeria) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Athletic Club and 0% for Almeria.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 33% of games; Almeria in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 33% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Athletic Club's recent games and 0% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Almeria tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almeria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Almeria 4-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.36 xG and Almeria 0.63 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Almeria attack 0.60 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 55% | Draw 28% | Almeria 17%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 50%, Almeria 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almeria's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.